Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: Sensitivity of Results to Factors Mobiliy Among Sectors

The purposes of this paper are twofold (i) to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect labor markets are considered, (ii) to evaluate the impact of the recent reforms of European agricultural policy on the world welfare. The results of two versions of a dynamic world computable genaral equilibrium (CGE) model, usign the GTAP database version 6 are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed by perfect labor mobility across sectors. In the second version we assume that labor shift s freely within the aggregated sectors -agriculture, manufactures, services,- but not across them. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented not only by the world GDP but also by the consumption level of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in 7 regions (Brazil, China, India, Least developed countries, European Union, United States, Rest of the World) after partial trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed. ...French Abstract : Cet article a un double objectif (i) évaluer les modifications des gains de la libéralisation lorsque certaines imperfections des marchés du travail sont prises en compte, (ii) quantifier les impacts des réformes récentes de la Politique Agricole Commune. Deux versions d'un modèle mondial d'équilibre général, utilisant la base de données GTAP (version 6), sont utilisées à cet effet : dans la première l'hypothèse standard de mobilité parfaite du travail entre secteurs est adoptée, alors que dans la seconde on suppose que si le travail se déplace librement à l'intérieur de secteurs agrégés (agriculture, manufactures, services), il ne peut passer de l'un à l'autre. Après une brève description des principales caractéristiques des deux versions du modèle, les résultats obtenus dans des scénarii de libéralisation partielle, pour 7 régions du monde (Brésil, Chine, Inde, PMA, UE, USA, RDM) et deux types de ménages (riches et pauvres) sont présentés. Les conséquences théoriques et politiques sont ensuite discutées.TRADE LIBERALIZATION; MARKET; EUROPEAN AGRICULTURAL POLICY; LABOR MARKET

Stellar Populations with ELTs

The star formation, mass assembly and chemical enrichment histories of galaxies, and their present distributions of dark matter, remain encoded in their stellar populations. Distinguishing the actual distribution functions of stellar age, metallicity and kinematics at several locations in a range of galaxies, sampling across Hubble types and representative environments, is the information required for a robust description of galaxy histories. Achieving this requires large aperture, to provide the sensitivity to reach a range of environs and Hubble types beyond the Local Group, to provide high spatial resolution, since the fields are crowded, and preferably with optical performance since age-sensitivity is greatest near the main-sequence turn-off, and metallicity-sensitivity for these warm stars is greatest in the optical.Comment: IAU Symposium No. 232, eds P. Whitelock, B. Leidundgeit & M. Dennefel

Measuring the U.S. Health Care System: A Cross-National Comparison

Compares U.S. healthcare data including hospital beds and physicians, hospital and physician visits, healthcare spending, and high-tech procedures per capita, as well as life expectancy with those of twenty-nine other industrialized countries

Why Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective? The Debate on Tax and Expenditure Multipliers

Recent dissatisfaction with the impact of expenditure stimulus on economic activity in the United States, along with the results of academic research, have once again raised questions about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies and about whether stimulus to a recessionary economy should be in the form of tax cuts or expenditure increases. This paper considers alternative methods for evaluating the impacts of stimulus policy strategies. We discuss conceptual challenges involved in effectiveness measurement, and we review alternative empirical approaches applied in recent studies. We then present our own estimates of policy multipliers based on simulations of the IHS Global Insight model of the US economy. Based on this review and analysis, we address the question of why recent US stimulus programs have not been more effective.United States (US) recession and recovery; fiscal and monetary policy; tax and expenditure multipliers; econometric model forecast simulation.

Japan's Persistent Trade Surplus: Policies for Adjustment

While part of the recent increase in the Japanese trade surplus can be attributed to the Japanese recession, the surplus has widened despite the appreciation of the yen and enactment of policies to open Japanese markets. We review the trade surplus issue in the light of theories of trade and current account adjustment. We evaluate the potential for exchange appreciation and Japanese fiscal policy to reduce the imbalance, estimating their effects using simulations of the NIRA-LINK model of the US-Japan-world economy. The simulations show that moderate use of macropolicies would not be sufficient to eliminate the trade imbalance.Japanese trade surplus, econometric simulations

Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?

The Japanese current account has been in surplus since 1981, ranging from 1% to more than 4% of GDP. In this paper, we review the macroeconomic forces that have driven the surplus and describe likely changes in the first part of the next century. In coming years, structural change in Japan's economy-population aging, the globalization of production, and financial market reforms-will alter the underlying determinants of the surplus. While the net effect of these forces is difficult to predict, the most likely outcome is a gradual closing of the current account gap. We use large-model simulation analysis to evaluate the potential for specific developments to alter the current account, and we assess their likely impact on the Japanese economy.Japanese current account, forecast

"A Theory of Production" The Estimation of the Cobb-Douglas Function: A Retrospective View

The Cobb-Douglas production function is still today the most ubiquitous form in theoretical and empirical analyses of growth and productivity. The estimation of the parameters of aggregate production functions is central to much of today's work on growth, technological change, productivity, and labor. This paper has taken up Samuelson's [1979] invitation to verify empirically his claim that all the regression of the Cobb-Douglas [1928] production function does is to reproduce the income accounting identity according to which value added equals the sum of the wage bill plus total profits. This paper concludes that Samuelson was right, and believes that this argument has very serious implications for today's work in macroeconomics.

A FORECAST FOR THE GROCERY INDUSTRY IN THE 1990S

Agribusiness,